Jeremy Guthrie in 2008 Predictions

[TyCobb]

3.25-3.50 with over 200 ip.

[DrungoHazewood]

If you say so.

Why don't we say "largely the result of his defense and luck - as opined by current accepted statistical methods used today."

You can say that if you like. I'll keep saying what I mean to say in a simple, straightforward manner.

[threedaysrest]

3.25-3.50 with over 200 ip.

This.

Those of you predicting 5+ ERAs and other nonsense: upon what are you basing this crazy assertion? Please explain what characteristics, stats, or anything else that points to the likelihood of this happening.

[DrungoHazewood]

I basically agree….. I do look for pitchers that avg a K per IP, mostly because that is an indication of stuff…….. But there is something missing in current stats, that does not show pitchers pitching to contact.

Guthrie clearly has plus stuff at his best… where is the stat that shows him having the ability to throw a strike that batters have limited ability to do damage with?

Nobody ever questions the stuff that Palmer had, but he did not rack up huge K numbers… clearly he was pitching to contact, and taking advantage of his defense right?

Pitching to contact is another way of saying you're taking the result of the play out of the pitcher's control and placing it in the control of the defense. Palmer pitched to contact and it worked because he had a legendary defense behind him. Guthrie doesn't, and Mercedes didn't.

Guthrie pitched well last year because he struck out six and a half batters per nine, had a better than anticipated BABIP, and had pretty decent BB and HR rates. Not because he can will the ball into the gloves of his fielders.

[Tank]

15-10, 4.43 ERA, 1.36 Whip, 6.9 K/9

[DrungoHazewood]

This.

Those of you predicting 5+ ERAs and other nonsense: upon what are you basing this crazy assertion? Please explain what characteristics, stats, or anything else that points to the likelihood of this happening.

I don't think he'll have a 5.00, but he'll probably be in the mid-4.00s. A typical American League pitcher had a batting average on balls in play of a tick over .300. Guthrie's was .277. He's not an extreme flyball or groundball pitcher, so I tend to believe that was largely a result of att'em balls. When a few more of those fall in in 2008 his BABIP will probably be closer to the league average, so his ERA will go up a bit.

Now, it is possible that the O's defense is going to be improved this year with Scott, Jones, and Luis Hernandez, so that could improve the whole team's run prevention and offset the BABIP increases likely for Guthrie.

[ACE]

Just adding my fun fact that mostly everyone knows about Guthrie into the conversation.

Guthrie while 29, took off two years pitching full time on his mission to Spain during college.

I think that factors into his wear and tear plus the grind that alot of pitchers who have been pretty much pitching non-stop since High School.

[DrungoHazewood]

I agree that the main factors in his favor last year were allowing less than a hit per IP, and only 47 walks in 175IP…. And that the 23 home runs allowed were liveable.

Would not the OPS against of .711 be the best indicator of his season though? The idea that teams were not getting on base that often, nor was the slugging % against very high.

He was pitching deep into games on a consistent basis last year, because of his command of the stike zone… consistently getting ahead of hitters….. Hitters that are behind in the count, are then forced to swing at strikes or close pitches they would otherwise let pass…

You don't think that the contact hitters have on pitches they would otherwise let pass, has bearing on BABIP?

Maybe some, but not much. Greg Maddux has had a typical BABIP over his career and he's probably been ahead of more hitters than anyone in history.

[lint06]

Guthrie goes 11-8 with a 4.15 era

[Sports Guy]

This.

Those of you predicting 5+ ERAs and other nonsense: upon what are you basing this crazy assertion? Please explain what characteristics, stats, or anything else that points to the likelihood of this happening.

Simple...Take away his first 10 starts from last year and you have a pitcher with a 5 ERA....Look at his MiL numbers and you see a guy who you wouldn't project to be all that great.

Then, on top of that, look at how lucky his BABIP was for a lot of the season last year and you see how he got lucky early on.

His GB/FB rate really dropped.

The key for Guthrie will be to keep the K rate at 6 or better and the BB rate rate at 3 or lower. If he can do those 2 things, he should be able to give us innings and be a reliable back end of the rotation guy.

If he struggles to do those things and sees his HR rate around 1 per 9 IP(which is extremely likely based off of last year and his minor league career), then he will not be that good.

[hoosiers]

You can say that if you like. I'll keep saying what I mean to say in a simple, straightforward manner.

It is your perogative to provide potentially misleading opinion as fact.

[RShack]

Greg Maddux has had a typical BABIP over his career and he's probably been ahead of more hitters than anyone in history.

When he was at his peak in ATL, I read an interview with him. The interviewer was asking him about his success. Maddux said something about how he figured things out, and what it was that he figured out. He said it was no accident, no freak thing, and it wasn't that he had more talent either. He said it was because he figured something out. Naturally, the guy asked him what it was. Maddux said he wasn't talking about it now. Maybe when he retired. Or maybe not, he wasn't sure. Then, he changed the subject.

[NewMarketSean]

When he was at his peak in ATL, I read an interview with him. The interviewer was asking him about his success. Maddux said something about how he figured things out, and what it was that he figured out. He said it was no accident, no freak thing, and it wasn't that he had more talent either. He said it was because he figured something out. Naturally, the guy asked him what it was. Maddux said he wasn't talking about it now. Maybe when he retired. Or maybe not, he wasn't sure. Then, he changed the subject.

Throw strikes? LOL.

[tywright]

Simple...Take away his first 10 starts from last year and you have a pitcher with a 5 ERA....Look at his MiL numbers and you see a guy who you wouldn't project to be all that great.

Then, on top of that, look at how lucky his BABIP was for a lot of the season last year and you see how he got lucky early on.

His GB/FB rate really dropped.

The key for Guthrie will be to keep the K rate at 6 or better and the BB rate rate at 3 or lower. If he can do those 2 things, he should be able to give us innings and be a reliable back end of the rotation guy.

If he struggles to do those things and sees his HR rate around 1 per 9 IP(which is extremely likely based off of last year and his minor league career), then he will not be that good.

Those first 10 starts (actually 13) made Guthrie's season. From the start of the 2nd half on (7/12) he had a 5.03 ERA (73 IP in 13 starts). Now let's say if in those 1st 13 starts (92IP) he had an ERA of 4.00 instead of his actual 2.16 ERA. His ERA for the year would then be approximately 4.47, which is pretty respectable.

[glenn__davis]

Man, it's nice to be talking baseball again.

I'm looking forward to seeing what Guthrie can do. I'll admit that I've sort of written him off, probably unfairly, as someone who will eventually be passed by other pitchers in the organization, but if he can come close to duplicating last year's success, it'll be a major help to the rebuilding process. Here's hoping for the best.